中国宏桥 (1378 HK) 2025年中期策略会速递—公司价值或迎来重估

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and highlights its strong dividend attributes, maintaining a leading position in the aluminum industry [1][2] - A significant asset restructuring is underway, with the company planning to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 63.518 billion RMB, which is expected to enhance the company's market influence and asset securitization [2] - The decline in energy prices is anticipated to reduce the company's costs, particularly in the Shandong region, where self-supplied power is prevalent [3] - The company expects to see profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment from the second half of 2025 to 2026, despite short-term demand fluctuations [4] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 16.129 billion RMB, 17.751 billion RMB, and 21.285 billion RMB respectively [5] - The report estimates a target price of 15.37 HKD based on a PE ratio of 8.5 for 2025, reflecting an increase in the dividend payout ratio to over 60% [5][9] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 138.58 billion RMB, with a slight decline expected compared to 2024 [7]