2025年下半年宏观、政策及资产配置展望：拨云见日

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the current macroeconomic environment, highlighting three core influencing factors: external changes, internal trends, and policy shifts [2][8][12] - It discusses the political new cycle between China and the US, noting the strategic initiatives from the Trump administration aimed at reshaping the global distribution system, which may lead to increased pressure on China [9][10][11] - The report suggests that China's economic growth can achieve the 5% target for 2025, supported by manufacturing investment and broad infrastructure projects countering real estate downturns [12][13] Group 2 - The report identifies the need for a dual approach in asset allocation, focusing on both offensive and defensive strategies, particularly in a low inflation environment that supports resilient returns [14] - It highlights the significance of technology as a focal point in the great power competition, with opportunities in domestic upstream substitution and AI applications [14] - The report notes the importance of domestic policy variables, including mechanisms for stabilizing the market and the impact of new public fund regulations on future investment growth [14] Group 3 - The report outlines the expected resilience of "redemption" assets in a low inflation context, suggesting that emerging consumption trends should be prioritized for investment [14] - It discusses the steady growth of wealth management products and the decline in deposit rates, which are expected to support the bond market and similar assets [14] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor supply-demand dynamics in commodities, particularly in emerging industries and raw material adjustments [14]