6月流动性月报：跨半年以呵护为主，资金压力可控-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In May 2025, with the implementation of double cuts and the coordination of multiple tools by the central bank, the capital market remained stable, and the DR007 capital center declined. In June, although there is a liquidity gap, the pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase and the central bank's usual care during the half - year period are expected to keep the risk of significant capital convergence relatively controllable, and the DR007 price is expected to be in the range of 1.5 - 1.65% [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 May Capital and Liquidity Review: Double Cuts Implemented, Capital Center Declined 3.1.1 Capital Review: Slightly Enlarged Capital Fluctuation Range In May 2025, the central bank coordinated multiple tools. After the double cuts, the capital price decreased, and the DR007 capital center dropped from 1.7% to around 1.6%. The fluctuation range of overnight and 7D weighted prices increased. The spread between 7D and overnight funds widened from 2bp at the beginning of the month to 18bp at the end of the month without inversion. The capital stratification pressure was small, and the volatility was at a low level. The trading volume and average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly compared with April. The net lending scale of state - owned banks recovered, while that of joint - stock banks was at a seasonal low, and the net lending of money market funds declined [8][9][14]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review: Reserve Requirement Cut, Bank Liquidity Increased The end - of - month excess reserve may increase by 93.84 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio may be around 1.3%. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases may be around 0.7%, still at a relatively low seasonal level. In terms of open - market operations, the central bank actively increased reverse - repurchase investments. MLF had a net investment of 37.5 billion yuan, and the outright reverse - repurchase had a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. There was no restart of treasury bond purchases, and treasury deposits were issued for 24 billion yuan [28][33][41]. 3.2 May Monetary Policy Tracking: "Steady Growth" Priority, Double Cuts Implemented in May In May 2025, the double cuts were implemented slightly ahead of market expectations. After the double cuts in the first ten - day period, the capital price decreased. In the middle and last ten - day periods, the central bank gradually shifted from net withdrawal to large - scale net investment. At the end of the month, various tools were used to support the market. The pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase in June helps stabilize capital expectations. Policy tools include comprehensive use of reserve requirement cuts, interest rate cuts, and adjustments to structural monetary policy tools [46][49][52]. 3.3 June Gap Forecast: Pre - operation of Outright Reverse Repurchase, Limited Capital Gap Pressure 3.3.1 Rigid Gap: Reserve Requirement Releases Excess Reserves, Large - scale Maturity of Outright Reverse Repurchases In June, the reserve requirement for general deposit growth may freeze around 22.56 billion yuan of liquidity, and the MLF maturity is 18.2 billion yuan. The outright reverse - repurchase maturity is 1.2 trillion yuan, with 1 trillion yuan already pre - operated [3][58]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks: Cash Withdrawal and Non - financial Institution Deposits Have a Small Impact on Excess Reserves Cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits may slightly consume around 11.52 billion yuan of liquidity [3][60]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors: Large - scale Government Bond Issuance, Fiscal Expenditure Concentrated at the End of the Quarter The government deposit may supplement around 40 billion yuan of liquidity, slightly lower than last year's level [3][64]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment: Pre - operation of Outright Reverse Repurchase, Relatively Stable Capital The total liquidity gap in June is around 1.4 trillion yuan. Considering the 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase already invested, the overall capital gap pressure is relatively limited. The central bank usually provides support during the half - year period, and the DR007 price is expected to be in the range of 1.5 - 1.65% [3][65][69].