Kouzijiao(SH:603589)2025-06-07 08:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.655 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.83% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.42%, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 3.59% [6] - The company plans to focus on "market upgrade, structural upgrade, and brand upgrade" as its strategic goals for 2025 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 6.015 billion yuan, with a forecasted net profit of 1.637 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.73 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 [5] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 74.4%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.5% [5] Business Performance - The company's white liquor business generated a revenue of 5.88 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.46%, and a sales volume increase of 2.76% [6] - In Q1 2025, the revenue from high-end liquor was 1.73 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.53% [7] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 27.5%, a decrease of 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [6][7] Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.46 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60.2% year-on-year [7] - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow was -246 million yuan, compared to -104 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to the timing of dealer payments [7]