美国5月非农就业数据点评：美国就业市场仍有隐忧

Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 126,000[4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with market forecasts[3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing expectations[3] Employment Trends - The three-month average for new jobs is 135,300, showing a significant decline compared to the end of 2024[4] - The labor force participation rate fell to approximately 62.4%, with a notable decrease in the labor force population by 625,000[20] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by 71,000, indicating a slight upward trend in unemployment[20] Sector Contributions - Private services accounted for all new jobs in May, with significant increases in transportation, warehousing, and leisure and hospitality sectors[4] - Government employment recorded a decrease of 2,000 jobs, highlighting a negative trend in public sector employment[15] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings rose to 7.391 million in April, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%, indicating a tightening labor market[6] - The ratio of job seekers to job openings is approximately 1.02, suggesting increased competition for available positions[6] Economic Outlook - Despite the positive May employment data, there are concerns about potential downward revisions of previous months' data, indicating underlying weaknesses in the labor market[4] - The ISM manufacturing and services PMI for May fell below the neutral 50% mark, raising concerns about economic recession risks[42] Federal Reserve Implications - The stable employment data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rates during the June FOMC meeting[45] - The Fed is expected to consider potential rate cuts in Q4, with a possibility of 1-2 cuts throughout the year, potentially exceeding 25 basis points[45]