填坑行情后的震荡何时结束？

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market, indicating a potential for continued strong fluctuations and possible upward breakthroughs in the near term [3][6][14]. Core Insights - The report identifies that the end of the "filling pit" market phase is primarily driven by policies and external events, with historical data showing that out of seven instances since 2015, five resulted in market increases post-oscillation [6][14]. - Current short-term economic recovery trends are noted, with improvements in real estate sales and increased operational rates in the construction sector [19][24]. - The report emphasizes a focus on technology and new consumption sectors for investment, suggesting that these areas will continue to outperform in the near term [36][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Ending the Oscillation After the Filling Pit Market - The end of the oscillation phase is driven by policies and external events, with historical oscillation periods averaging 86 trading days, where five out of seven instances led to market increases [6][14]. - Key factors influencing the end of oscillation include policy easing and positive external events, such as geopolitical developments and economic agreements [6][14]. 2. Weekly Strategy: Continued Strong Oscillation in A-Shares - Short-term economic recovery is evident, with real estate sales showing resilience and construction project initiation rates improving [19][24]. - Liquidity remains loose, with significant reverse repos scheduled, indicating a strong willingness from the central bank to maintain liquidity [24][26]. 3. Industry Allocation: Focus on Technology and New Consumption - The report suggests that small-cap stocks may continue to outperform, as current market indicators are significantly below historical thresholds for style switching [33][34]. - Technology and new consumption sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with historical trends indicating these sectors perform well during oscillation periods [36][37]. - Valuation attractiveness is noted in sectors such as oil services, textiles, and media, with low PE ratios and high expected growth rates [40].