Minsheng Securities·2025-06-07 12:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including Jin控煤业, 陕西煤业, 华阳股份, 中国神华, 中煤能源, 山煤国际, 新集能源, 兖矿能源, and 淮北矿业, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the continuous destocking at ports and the upcoming peak summer demand are expected to drive a rebound in thermal coal prices. The demand side is seeing an increase in daily consumption by power plants as temperatures rise, while supply is tightening due to reduced production and stricter safety inspections [1][7]. - The report suggests that after verifying the bottom support for coal prices, the stable high dividend yield of coal stocks enhances their investment value, leading to a potential valuation uplift for the sector [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable performance and high cash flow growth, recommending specific stocks based on their financial health and market position [11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the coal market is experiencing mixed price movements, with low-calorie coal prices slightly increasing due to tight supply. The overall market remains stable, with port coal prices showing minor fluctuations [1][7]. - The report indicates that the average daily coal consumption by power plants has increased, with a week-on-week rise of 33.7 thousand tons, reflecting a growing demand for electricity [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report discusses the supply side, noting a significant decline in coal production due to low prices and stricter environmental checks, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. This is expected to lead to a tighter supply situation [1][10]. - On the demand side, the report highlights that non-electric demand remains high, and the anticipated increase in thermal power generation could lead to a positive shift in coal prices [1][7]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with Jin控煤业 expected to have an EPS of 1.68 yuan in 2024, while 陕西煤业 is projected to have an EPS of 2.31 yuan. The report recommends these companies based on their stable earnings and growth potential [3][11]. - The report also notes that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.3% for the coal sector compared to a 0.9% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [12][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with robust performance and cash flow, such as Jin控煤业 and 陕西煤业, as well as industry leaders like 中国神华 and 中煤能源. It also suggests looking at companies with growth in production, such as 华阳股份 and 山煤国际 [11][12].