Workflow
买短债,正当时
Changjiang Securities·2025-06-07 13:35

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - end interest rates in the bond market may open a downward space. The yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to 1.3%. The full decline of short - end interest rates will bring a downward space for long - end interest rates. The bond market may first experience a bullish steepening and then a bullish flattening. The strategy is to first use the "bullet" strategy and then the "dumbbell" strategy. If the central bank restarts the operation of buying and selling treasury bonds, it will directly benefit the bond market, especially short - end varieties. Even without considering the central bank's purchase of treasury bonds through primary dealers, large banks also have the motivation to buy short - term bonds. After the peak maturity period of inter - bank certificates of deposit in June, the yield is expected to decline, and the yields of corresponding treasury bonds and credit bonds will also decline [2][7][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Large Banks Buying Short - Term Bonds, Short - End Market Expected to Start - If the central bank restarts the operation of buying and selling treasury bonds, it will directly benefit the bond market, especially short - end varieties. The form may be similar to that in the fourth quarter of 2024, mainly manifested as the purchase of short - duration treasury bonds rather than "buying short and selling long" [5][13]. - Even without considering the central bank's purchase of treasury bonds through primary dealers, large banks have the motivation to buy short - term bonds: 1) Since this year, long - term bond trading has been difficult and the profit - making effect has been weak, so large banks have the motivation to adjust their strategies and buy short - term bonds. 2) Since this year, the average issuance term of government bonds has been higher than in previous years. After taking on more long - duration assets, large banks also have the motivation to buy short - term treasury bonds to balance the duration of the bond investment portfolio. 3) After the reduction of the listed deposit rate in mid - and late May, there is a possibility of "deposit transfer" in banks. This part of the funds mainly flows back to the banking system through non - banks' allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit and inter - bank current deposits, which may bring pressure on the shortening of the liability duration of banks. Therefore, large banks also have the demand to buy short - duration treasury bonds to balance the asset - liability duration [5][17]. 2. Bank Liability Pressure is Controllable, and the Yield of Certificates of Deposit is Expected to Continue to Decline - The reduction of bank deposit rates theoretically has a negative impact on certificates of deposit and is beneficial to short - duration treasury bonds and credit bonds. Considering the uncertain recovery of real - economy financing and the central bank's recent care attitude, after the peak maturity period of inter - bank certificates of deposit in June, the yield is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yields of corresponding treasury bonds and credit bonds will also decline [6][21]. - The reduction of deposit rates and the financial disintermediation after the rectification of "manual interest compensation" have similarities and differences. The reduction of the listed deposit rate is a normal process of interest rate marketization transmission. Due to the stickiness of general deposits, the "deposit transfer" caused by the reduction of the listed deposit rate will be slower than that caused by the rectification of manual interest compensation. The final influencing factors of the price of inter - bank certificates of deposit are the central bank's liquidity injection and the consumption of banks' excess reserves by real - economy financing. Currently, the central bank has shown its care attitude towards liquidity, and the recovery of real - economy financing is still slow. It is currently judged that 1.7% is basically the upper limit of the yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit, and it is expected to decline to 1.6% after the maturity pressure in June [6][22]. 3. Short - End Interest Rates Decline First, Then Driving Long - End Interest Rates Down - The short - end interest rates may decline first, and then open a downward space for the long - end. It is expected that the bond market may first experience a bullish steepening and then a bullish flattening. The yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to around 1.3%. If the central bank further reduces the funds price center, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to around 1.8%. The strategy is to first use the "bullet" strategy and then the "dumbbell" strategy [7][28].