石化周报（5 31-6 05）：地缘形势变化，油价有望回升

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [51]. Core Insights - Changes in geopolitical situations, along with a year-on-year decrease in US crude oil inventories by 4.36%, and a reduction in the number of active drilling rigs and fracturing fleets by 12% and 23.08% respectively, indicate a potential rebound in oil prices [3][4]. - The average Brent oil price for the year is reported at $70.8 per barrel, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.08% [16]. - Natural gas prices have shown significant increases, with US NYMEX natural gas futures averaging $3.69 per million British thermal units, a 75% increase year-on-year [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Subsector Tracking - Natural gas prices have seen fluctuations, with domestic LNG ex-factory prices at 4424 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.85% week-on-week but an increase of 0.57% year-on-year [8]. - Brent oil prices have decreased by 1.36% in the latest week, while US commercial crude oil inventories have decreased by 0.98% week-on-week [16]. - The price of potassium fertilizer remains high, with domestic spot prices at 2900 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week but up 20.51% year-on-year [30]. 2. Market Performance - The petrochemical sector has seen a slight increase of 0.23%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.97%, ranking 23rd among 30 major sectors [35]. - Among the petrochemical sub-sectors, "Other Petrochemicals" experienced the largest increase of 2.42% [35]. 3. Key Company Announcements and Industry News - A subsidiary of a key company received a project award for the construction of a gas pipeline in Iraq, with an estimated contract value of approximately $294 million (about 2.12 billion RMB) [42]. - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 65 RMB and 60 RMB per ton respectively, effective from June 3, 2025 [43]. 4. Changes in Major Downstream Consumption Areas - Domestic fuel vehicle sales have decreased by 8.65% year-on-year since April 2025, while highway freight traffic has increased by 3.41% year-on-year [46].