美国经济将迎来至关重要的两个月——兼评5月非农就业

Economic Overview - The US economy shows strong resilience in May, with no signs of recession observed[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching expectations[2] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, slightly above the forecast of 130,000[2] Employment Data - April's non-farm payrolls were revised down from 177,000 to 147,000, and March's from 185,000 to 120,000, totaling a downward revision of 95,000 over two months[2] - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, below the expected 62.6%[2] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the previous month's increase of 0.2%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm payroll release, US stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 1.0%, 1.2%, and 1.1% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 11.1 basis points to 4.51%[3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates twice in 2025 dropped from 100% to around 80%[3] Key Events to Watch - Two critical events in the next two months: trade negotiations and the potential passage of Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" in the Senate[4] - The trade agreement deadline for tariffs on China is August 12, while the deadline for other countries is July 9[4] - Market expectations for trade agreements with China, India, Japan, and Canada are above 50%[4] Risks - Ongoing risks include unexpected developments in the US economy, inflation, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts[4]