5月价差有所改善，中游供需拐点渐至

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector and a "Buy" rating for several chemical companies [6]. Core Views - The overall price spread in the industry improved in May 2025, with the CCPI-oil price spread at approximately 731, reflecting a 30% improvement compared to the past decade [2][15]. - The report anticipates a recovery point for chemical cyclical products in the second half of 2025, driven by demand recovery and significant slowdown in capital expenditure [2][3]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The domestic PMI for May 2025 was reported at 49.5, indicating a potential recovery in demand alongside easing tariffs [3][18]. - The report highlights that while the real estate sector remains weak, sectors like automotive and home appliances are showing positive growth due to domestic consumption policies [18]. Supply Side - Capital expenditure in the chemical raw materials and products sector showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3% from January to April 2025, but the growth rate is declining [3][37]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a self-adjustment phase, with some sectors nearing capacity inflection points [3][37]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may mark the beginning of an upward trend, focusing on resilient demand and improved market conditions [5][42]. - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and others, particularly in sectors like refrigerants and isocyanates, which are expected to see early optimization [5][9]. Monthly Price Changes - In May, several products, including urea and TDI, saw price increases due to supply constraints and export demand [4][43]. - The report notes that while some products are experiencing price increases, others like methyl trichlorosilane are facing price declines due to weak demand [4][43]. Key Sub-industry Review - The oil and gas sector experienced fluctuations in prices, with Brent crude oil prices showing a slight recovery after initial declines [49]. - The report indicates that OPEC+ has adjusted production targets, which may impact future oil prices [49][56].