策略周评20250607：接下来行业怎么轮动？

Group 1 - The report highlights two significant market rallies since the beginning of 2025, characterized by distinct trading themes: the first being the "East Rising, West Falling" trade and the second being a rebound following tariff shocks [1][2] - The first rally was driven by a weak dollar, which benefitted emerging markets and led to a notable performance in China's technology growth sector, particularly in humanoid robots and computing power [1][2] - The second rally, which began after a sharp market drop on April 7, 2025, was marked by a lack of a clear trading theme, instead exhibiting a "fan-like" rotation among various sectors, including anti-tariff, domestic consumption, and new energy [2][3] Group 2 - The report notes a difference in the characteristics of sector rotation between the two rallies, with the first rally showing a smaller rotation area (45.2%) and a higher average excess return (7.8%) compared to the second rally, which had a larger rotation area (over 60%) but a lower average excess return (6.5%) [3][4] - In the first rally, the TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector saw a significant increase in trading volume, peaking at 45% by the end of February, while the second rally indicated a shift towards other sectors like defense and new consumption [4][6] - The report anticipates that the next market rally may replicate the "East Rising, West Falling" trade, driven by a continued weak dollar and increased liquidity, with a projected total market volume rising above 1.5 trillion [5][6] Group 3 - The report suggests that in the current market environment, characterized by stock rotation, sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense industries should be closely monitored for potential investment opportunities [7] - It emphasizes that the upcoming market rally will likely benefit from a weak dollar, which is expected to enhance the performance of growth stocks, particularly in technology sectors like computing power and humanoid robots [7][6] - The report indicates that while some sectors may appear overvalued, the AI sector, particularly those involved in algorithm iterations and infrastructure upgrades, is expected to be a key driver of the next upward trend [6][7]