就业降温趋势不变——5月美国非农数据解读

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, continuing a downward trend from previous months[2] - The combined downward revision for March and April was 95,000, indicating a potential overestimation of current employment levels[2][5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%[2][10] Sector Analysis - Job growth in May was primarily driven by the service sector, which added 145,000 jobs, while government employment decreased by 22,000[8] - Manufacturing jobs saw a decline of 13,000, influenced by tariff policies[2][8] - The federal government has reduced employment by 59,000 since January, reflecting ongoing layoffs[5][8] Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month, maintaining a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9%[13] - The average workweek remained steady at 34.3 hours, suggesting stable wage growth may support consumer spending[13] Market Expectations - Following the release of the May non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly adjusted to two potential cuts within the year, with the earliest possible in September[21] - Despite the overall stability in unemployment rates, the declining labor force participation and continuous downward revisions in employment data suggest a cooling job market[21] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[25][26]