就业韧性，令美联储仍可“按兵不动”——5月美国非农就业数据点评

Employment Data Summary - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down to 147,000[4] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 0.06 percentage points month-over-month[6] - Job growth in the goods sector declined, with mining, construction, and manufacturing losing 3,000, 3,000, and 13,000 jobs respectively, while the service sector added 145,000 jobs[6] Wage and Inflation Insights - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth remained at 3.9%, above the forecast of 3.7%[6] - Core service inflation pressures are rising, indicating potential inflation risks in the economy[27] Federal Reserve Outlook - The resilience in employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve can afford to maintain its current monetary policy stance without immediate rate cuts[6] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of interest rate cuts in June 2025, with the market pricing in a 99.9% chance of no rate change[26] Economic Risks - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations, particularly due to the impact of tariffs and the potential for a rebound in inflation rates, which could complicate future monetary policy decisions[27]