6月宏观月报：静待政策“新变化”-20250608

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - In May, the implied probability of a U.S. recession dropped from 63% at the end of April to 29% by June 6, indicating improved market sentiment[1] - The Federal Reserve's implied rate cut expectations decreased from 4.1 times to 2.2 times, reflecting a more optimistic outlook[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 34 basis points to 4.51% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and a rapid rise in Japanese bond yields[1][19] Group 2: Domestic Economic Developments - The domestic economy is transitioning from "old forces" to "new forces," with signs of slowing recovery in May, as retail sales growth fell to 5.1%[2][32] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate increased to 12.9% in April, providing strong support for the economy[2][46] - A series of financial policies were announced on May 7, including a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut, aimed at stabilizing market confidence[2][46] Group 3: Trade and Policy Uncertainties - The U.S. is facing uncertainties regarding tariff policies and tax reforms, with key decisions expected around mid-June[3] - The second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is set to begin on June 9, focusing on tariff corridors and export mechanisms[4] - The potential adjustment of the fiscal budget by the National People's Congress in June is a critical area to watch for its impact on economic support[3]