中金中国绿发商业REIT（180606）申购价值分析

• The REIT project, "Lingxiu City Guihe Shopping Center," is positioned as a comprehensive lifestyle plaza with annual revenue exceeding 20 billion yuan. It features six floors and 787 parking spaces, catering to urban family needs with balanced retail, dining, education, and entertainment offerings[11][12][13] - The project is the only large-scale comprehensive shopping center within a 5-kilometer radius, with no comparable competitors in the area for the next three years. It has established a first-mover advantage in the southern Jinan market[20][21] - The original equity holder, Shandong Luneng Commercial Management Co., Ltd., backed by the Green Development Group, has extensive experience in commercial asset management and a rich brand resource pool. It plans to expand the REIT platform with mature and under-construction assets[22][25][26] - The project's revenue has steadily grown from 1.08 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.60 billion yuan in 2024, with 90% derived from rental and property management income. Net profit fluctuated due to depreciation, rent reductions, and restructuring costs[33][34][36] - The project's gross profit margin increased from -1.35% in 2022 to 37.70% in 2024, still below the average of comparable REITs. EBITDA margin remained stable and comparable to peers, ranging from 59.05% to 60.78% during the same period[36][37][38] - The occupancy rate of the project's retail spaces improved from 93.04% in 2022 to 95.64% in 2024, slightly below the average of comparable REITs. Rent collection rates were consistently 100% during this period[39][40][41] - Tenant concentration is low, with the top five tenants accounting for 13.34% of revenue in 2024. Lease terms are primarily short to medium-term, with over 50% of leases expiring after 2027. The project has secured renewal intentions for 55.51% of leases expiring in 2025[44][47][49] - Monthly rental efficiency increased from 65 yuan/sqm in 2022 to 105 yuan/sqm in 2024, driven by higher sales efficiency and a rise in "higher-of-two" lease agreements to over 40%[52][54][56] - The forecasted annualized distribution rate for 2025 is 4.95%, significantly higher than the average of comparable REITs at 3.65%[55][57] - The project's discount rate is set at 7%, aligning with the average of consumer REITs. Asset valuation shows a minor depreciation of 3.38%, much lower than the average appreciation rate of 59.8% for comparable REITs[58][60] - The project's P/FFO ratio is estimated at 22.70-27.74 times, comparable to the average of listed consumer REITs at 24.12 times[61][62][63] - The forecasted capitalization rate for 2025 is 6.09%, close to the average of comparable REITs at 6.34%[65][66][68]