大炼化周报：油价对炼化产品引导性偏弱，产品价差弱势下跌-20250608

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Cautious" as the industry index is expected to underperform the benchmark [119] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that oil prices have a weak guiding effect on refining products, leading to a decline in product price spreads [1] - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2495.45 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.43 CNY/ton (+0.42%), while the foreign key refining project price spread is 1048.26 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 32.68 CNY/ton (-3.02%) [2][1] - Brent crude oil average price for the week ending June 6, 2025, is 65.17 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.09% [2][1] Refining Sector Summary - Despite a temporary boost in market risk appetite due to the suspension of Trump tariffs, OPEC+ plans to increase production in July, putting downward pressure on international oil prices [1] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices as of June 6, 2025, are 66.47 USD/barrel and 64.58 USD/barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.57 USD/barrel and 3.79 USD/barrel compared to May 30, 2025 [1] - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly increased, while overseas refined oil prices have also seen some upward movement [1] Chemical Sector Summary - The report notes that the recent fluctuations in oil prices have had a weak guiding effect on chemical product prices, primarily due to weak supply and demand dynamics [1] - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices have shown fluctuations, with price spreads declining [1] - The report highlights that the price of EVA has decreased, with transactions primarily focused on essential spot purchases [1] Polyester Sector Summary - Polyester raw material prices have slightly decreased, with improvements in the profitability of filament products [1] - PX prices have seen a slight decline due to increased production from previously reduced capacity and adequate raw material inventory at downstream factories [1] - The report indicates that the average price of PTA is 4857.14 CNY/ton, with an average net profit of -151.35 CNY/ton [84][1] Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of June 6, 2025, the stock price changes for six major private refining companies are as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (-0.23%), Hengli Petrochemical (-1.12%), Dongfang Shenghong (-1.06%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-0.16%), Tongkun Co. (+0.28%), and Xin Fengming (+1.10%) [1][106] - Over the past month, stock price changes include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+3.95%), Hengli Petrochemical (-2.03%), Dongfang Shenghong (-4.55%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-0.49%), Tongkun Co. (-0.18%), and Xin Fengming (+2.04%) [1][106]