内外因素交织，市场或维持整固状态——策略周专题（2025年6月第1期）

Market Performance - The A-share market showed signs of recovery this week, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.3%, while the Shanghai 50 Index had the smallest increase of 0.4%[1] - The overall valuation of the Wind All A Index is currently at a historical average level since 2010[1] - Among sectors, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics performed well, with increases of 5.3%, 3.7%, and 3.6% respectively[1] Economic Factors - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, such as the launch of the 2025 "Service Consumption Season" and the promotion of new energy vehicles, are being implemented[2] - External factors include a recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump, and the SEC tightening regulations on foreign companies listed in the U.S.[2] - The overall domestic economy remains stable, with a projected resilient economic performance in Q2 due to supportive policies and reduced tariffs between China and the U.S.[2] Investment Strategies - Focus on three main investment lines: - Domestic consumption, which is expected to receive policy support and has shown resilience in earnings[4] - Domestic substitution, targeting industries with high import ratios from the U.S. and strong domestic supply capabilities[4] - Sectors currently underweighted by funds, such as banking and public utilities, which may present long-term investment opportunities[4] Risk Analysis - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, continued weak consumption data, and significant declines in market sentiment[4] - Concerns over external disturbances, particularly from U.S. policy changes, may hinder market upward movement, especially as the Shanghai Index approaches levels seen in early April[2][3]