微盘对轮动的思考

Market Performance - Micro盘 and dividend strategies have outperformed the market since April due to ample liquidity and weak fundamentals, leading to high valuations that cannot be digested[3] - The trading volume remains above 1 trillion, indicating an active market, with only banks maintaining an advantage in the dividend style[3] Dividend Strategy Challenges - In June, dividend strategies face volatility due to dividend-related price fluctuations, making it difficult to achieve excess returns[3] - Historically, June tends to favor large-cap growth styles, making dividend styles less appealing[3] Micro盘 Strategy Challenges - High turnover rates in micro盘 make it impractical for average investors, leading to excessive trading costs[3] - Many micro盘 stocks have small market capitalizations, limiting visibility for investors[3] Rotation Strategy Insights - Micro盘 strategies have shown consistent performance since 2020, with significant drawdowns occurring due to fundamental shocks like the dual hit of profit and credit in 2022[3] - The smallest market cap rotation has proven more effective than valuation rotation, which has not shown significant results[3] Future Outlook - After August 2024, the technology rotation strategy is expected to become more effective relative to micro盘 strategies, driven by a preference for technology manufacturing[3] - Weekly frequency rotation shows some excess performance but is less effective than daily frequency rotation, particularly after liquidity shocks in 2024[4] Risk Factors - Potential data statistical errors and economic recovery not meeting expectations pose risks to the strategies discussed[5]