能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250608

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, both short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are in a volatile state; medium - term, they are expected to be weak. For bottle - chips, there are signs of marginal production cuts by factories, and there are concerns about export volume reduction due to rising freight rates. For short - fibers, demand is weaker than expected, and there may be concentrated production cuts if processing fees further deteriorate [2][8][10] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bottle - Chip (PR) 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - Absolute price has increased, with basis and monthly spreads remaining stable and volatile, and the near - end monthly spread has slightly weakened. Spot price has declined this week, and the difference between East China and South China is weak. The bottle - chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and the short - fiber - bottle - chip spread has compressed to a level similar to last year. The bottle - chip - PVC spread is at a high level, with limited further substitution drive, while the bottle - chip's cost - performance against PP is still high [19][22][28][29] - Export profit is compressed, with polymerization cost slightly decreasing this week. Bottle - chip spot processing fees have been further compressed to a historical low [50][54] 3.1.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: Since 2024, the production capacity base has been expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 2.168 billion tons. This week, the bottle - chip load has slightly decreased to 89.4%. Factories and social inventories are accumulating simultaneously. Some factories have started marginal production cuts, such as Sanfangxiang's expansion of maintenance involving about 1.8 million tons of production capacity, and Chenggao's 600,000 - ton production line shutting down due to a malfunction [33][55][61] - Demand: Downstream load has slightly declined month - on - month. In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production was 3.9%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of beverage - related commodity retail sales was 0.3%. There are still many new beverage production lines to be put into operation this year. The demand for edible oil is seasonally improving, and the demand for sheet materials is average, but supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [67][72][75] - Export: From January to April 2025, exports increased rapidly year - on - year. In April, the total export volume of polyester bottle - chips and slices was 688,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.3%. However, actual exports were lower than order - receiving data. Freight rates have been rising rapidly recently, which may lead to a significant month - on - month decrease in exports in June and July [82][9] - Anti - dumping: Many countries have implemented anti - dumping measures on Chinese bottle - chips, which may affect future exports [92] 3.2 Short - Fiber (PF) 3.2.1 Valuation and Profit - PF basis has remained stable and volatile, and the futures - spot structure maintains a backwardation structure. The processing fee on the disk has been running at a low level and rebounded slightly this week [99][106] 3.2.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: Short - fiber factories are operating at a high level, with the average load of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber at 92.1% and the startup rate of spinning direct - spinning polyester short - fiber at 92.2%. Some factories have started to reduce production, such as Jiangyin Sanfangxiang reducing production by 200 tons per day and Jiangsu Jiangnan reducing production by 110 tons per day [109][112] - Demand: The start - up rate of polyester yarn has remained stable. Yarn inventory replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and finished - product inventory has increased. The profit of polyester yarn is generally better than last year, especially for polyester - cotton yarn [132][134][137] - Downstream: The start - up rate of weaving machines has remained high and stable, with some seasonal reduction in load. The comprehensive start - up rate of江浙 texturing is 80%, the comprehensive start - up rate of江浙 looms is 68%, and the comprehensive start - up rate of江浙 printing and dyeing is 75% [145][150]