铜产业链周度报告-20250608

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper spot market is tight, with low domestic inventories and a rapid decline in LME inventories, indicating support for near - term prices. However, there is significant macro - uncertainty, and investors are trading cautiously. The volatility of copper prices in four markets is at a low level [8]. - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are low, but the spot premium has narrowed. Consumption in some industries is good, while others show off - season characteristics. The supply of copper concentrates and recycled copper is tight, increasing the probability of smelter production cuts. The expected Trump tariff on imported copper may cause a supply shortage outside the US [8]. - US tariff and economic policies bring uncertainty to the market. The market expects that even if Trump's tax - cut bill is passed, it may have a complex impact on the economy [8]. - In terms of trading strategies, although copper prices have risen slightly this week, it is difficult to form a trend. It is recommended to look for phased trading opportunities in unilateral trading, conduct internal - external reverse arbitrage, and try Shanghai copper term positive arbitrage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End 3.1.1 Volatility - The volatility of copper prices in four markets has continued to decline. The volatility of COMEX copper prices has fallen to around 17%, and that of LME copper prices has dropped to around 7% [13]. 3.1.2 Term Spread - The B - structure of Shanghai copper term has narrowed. The spread between Shanghai copper 06 - 07 contracts has fallen from 330 yuan/ton on May 30 to 80 yuan/ton on June 6. The LME copper spot premium has expanded, and the C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed [16]. 3.1.3 Position - The positions of Shanghai copper, LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper have all increased. Shanghai copper positions have increased by 27,500 lots to 569,400 lots [20]. 3.1.4 Capital and Industry Position - The net long position of LME commercial shorts has increased from 62,700 lots on May 23 to 62,900 lots. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial has risen from 22,600 lots on May 27 to 24,100 lots on June 3 [27]. 3.1.5 Spot Premium - The domestic copper spot premium has narrowed, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has weakened. The US and Rotterdam copper premiums are at high levels, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has risen to a historically high level [33]. 3.1.6 Inventory - Global total inventories have increased, domestic social inventories have stabilized and rebounded, bonded area inventories have recovered, COMEX inventories have increased, and LME copper inventories have decreased [40]. 3.1.7 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 06 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has rebounded rapidly, indicating tight overseas spot supply [41]. 3.2 Supply End 3.2.1 Copper Concentrate - Copper concentrate imports have increased. In April 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.9244 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 22.16% and a year - on - year increase of 24.55%. Port inventories have decreased rapidly, and processing fees have remained weak [45]. 3.2.2 Recycled Copper - Recycled copper imports and domestic production have decreased significantly. In April, imports were 204,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%, and domestic production was 87,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.50%. The scrap - refined spread has expanded, but is below the break - even point, and import profitability has narrowed [48][52]. 3.2.3 Blister Copper - Blister copper imports have increased. In April, imports were 74,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. Processing fees are at a low level [57]. 3.2.4 Refined Copper - Refined copper production has increased more than expected. In May, production was 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. Imports have decreased, and exports are profitable, which may lead to domestic supplies being transported overseas [59]. 3.3 Demand End 3.3.1开工率 - The operating rates of copper product enterprises are differentiated and have weakened overall. In May, the operating rate of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level in the same period of history, and that of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. The operating rate of wire and cable has continued to decline [63]. 3.3.2 Profit - The copper rod processing fee is at a neutral level in the same period of history and has weakened. The copper tube processing fee has remained stable and is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The processing fees of copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened [69]. 3.3.3 Raw Material Inventory - The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a low level [70]. 3.3.4 Finished Product Inventory - The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and that of wire and cable has increased. In May, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral - high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level [73]. 3.4 Consumption End 3.4.1 Consumption - Domestic copper actual and apparent consumption have performed well. From January to May, cumulative actual consumption was 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and apparent consumption was 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy are important supports for copper consumption, and power grid investment has accelerated [78]. 3.4.2 Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production - The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slowed down. In April, domestic air - conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.91%. New energy vehicle production is at a high level in the same period of history. In April, production was 1.251 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 43.79% [79].