铅产业链周度报告-20250608

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term, with lead prices undergoing narrow adjustments. The deep losses of secondary lead smelters, marginal reduction in supply, and the inversion of refined - scrap lead prices limit the downside of lead prices. Weak replacement consumption also restricts the short - term upward momentum. In the medium - to long - term, there is a good risk - reward ratio for long positions, and future strengthening of consumption is expected to provide support. Attention should be paid to whether there is a mid - year sales rush in June and the strength of consumption during the peak season in the third quarter [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Trading Volume, Open Interest) - Price and Spread: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract last week was 16,780 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.96%. The night - session closing price was 16,710 yuan/ton, with a night - session decline of 0.42%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,978.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.74%. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 26.98 dollars/ton last Friday, a decrease of 2.72 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead was 25 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8] - Inventory: The Shanghai Lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 41,799 tons, an increase of 2,380 tons compared to the previous week. The total Shanghai Lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory was 53,900 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 281,275 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons compared to the previous week, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 16.00%, a decrease of 2.33 percentage points compared to the previous week [8] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract last Friday was 30,853 lots, a decrease of 22,078 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 49,975 lots, a decrease of 3,355 lots compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 4,570 lots, a decrease of 2,201 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 147,151 lots, an increase of 2,190 lots compared to the previous week [8] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume of lead concentrate shows certain fluctuations over the years. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang also fluctuates. The domestic lead concentrate treatment charge (TC) was 600 yuan/ton last week, unchanged from the previous week. The import lead concentrate TC decreased by 10 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of imported lead concentrate and domestic lead concentrate also shows different trends [26][27] - Primary Lead and Secondary Lead: The production and weekly operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead show different trends over time. Currently, the secondary lead is in a state of significant losses, and the operating rate has been further adjusted downwards. The prices of scrap batteries have been suppressed by negative feedback from demand [7][28][30] 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - Lead - Acid Batteries: The export volume of lead - acid batteries, operating rates, and finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and terminal distributors all show different trends over the years. Currently, the lead - acid battery industry is in the off - season, and the finished - product inventory of battery enterprises and terminal distributors is difficult to deplete. The downstream feedback indicates that consumption is moderately weaker than in previous years, and the operating rate is under pressure, resulting in limited procurement of lead ingots by downstream enterprises [7][34] - End - Users: The production of automobiles and motorcycles shows certain trends over the years, which also affects the actual consumption of lead [35]