铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250608

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a significant off - season, showing weak performance. The price of scrap aluminum has declined, and ADC12 is relatively weak. In the short - term, the unilateral price of casting aluminum alloy is under pressure and may run weakly. The price difference between ADC12 and electrolytic aluminum still has room to decline. In the medium - to - long - term, a long - ADC12 and short - electrolytic aluminum position can be arranged at the end of the off - season, and attention can be paid to the inter - period positive spread position [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - to - high level in history. Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate has declined. The price of scrap aluminum has decreased, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has increased. After the raw material price of alloy plants decreased, the cost has loosened, but the operating rate is expected to continue to decline due to demand limitations [8][9][13] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The price of casting aluminum alloy has a slight short - term decline, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 has significantly converged. The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy shows that the southwest region is relatively weak and presents certain seasonal patterns. The operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low. ADC12 is mainly made from scrap aluminum and is currently in a loss state. The explicit and implicit inventories of casting alloys have increased, and the import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [19][22][27] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are presented. The production of recycled aluminum rods in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also provided [38][40] Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - In terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has affected die - casting consumption. The production of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and some household appliances, as well as the automobile inventory warning index, are also presented in the report [45][46]