能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20250608

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market Review: This week, the mainstream of the double - offset paper market remained stable, with prices of some natural - white specifications falling. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper was 5,163 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the trend turned stable from a decline. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper was 4,862 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (a 0.43% decline), and the decline rate widened by 0.10 percentage points compared to last week. The main influencing factors included stable paper mill offers at the beginning of the month, cautious inventory building by traders, little change in downstream printer orders, and a decline in the average price of upstream wood pulp, weakening cost support [4][52]. - Short - term Outlook: In the short term, some production lines in East and Central China have shut down, and the resumption time is unclear. Supply is expected to decrease slightly next week. Since the pick - up time for publication orders has not arrived and social demand is stable, there will be no significant improvement in demand. It is expected that the transaction of base paper will change little next week, with prices remaining stable [4][52]. - Medium - and Long - term Outlook: In the medium - and long - term, the core contradiction of double - offset paper is that the growth rate of terminal demand cannot cover the growth rate of production capacity. Paper prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the second half of the year. However, due to seasonal demand, there may be a phased high in prices within the year, expected to be from September to October, driven by improved demand and seasonal inventory replenishment by dealers. From a valuation perspective, the phased rebound of pulp prices has led to a decline in paper mill profits and a phased repair of valuation. As the US dollar market enters a price - cut cycle, the negative feedback between pulp and paper is expected to continue, and there is still room for paper prices to fall [4][52]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Inventory: As of this Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 1.13% compared to last Thursday, and the increase rate widened by 0.15 percentage points. Some large - scale paper mills intended to build inventory in advance for publication orders, and overall de - stocking was not obvious due to mainly rigid demand from downstream inquiries [6]. - Production Load: This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 47.71%, down 0.77 percentage points from last week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.58 percentage points. The resumption of some shut - down production lines in Jiangsu was offset by non - resumption in Shandong and maintenance of some lines in Hunan [7]. - Canadian Pulp Exports to China in April 2025: Coniferous pulp exports were 126,800 tons, down 32.10% month - on - month and 21.20% year - on - year; hardwood pulp exports were 11,900 tons, down 53.91% month - on - month and 31.64% year - on - year; chemimechanical pulp exports were 83,000 tons, down 0.73% month - on - month and up 2.45% year - on - year [7]. - Arauco's June 2025 Wood Pulp Offer: Arauco's offer for coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was 740 US dollars/ton, and for natural - colored pulp (Venus) was 620 US dollars/ton. There was no offer for hardwood pulp (Star), with no supply in June and partial supply expected to resume in July [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - Price Data: The average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper on June 6 was 5,162.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and last week [10]. - Spot Market and Cost - Profit: In the Shandong and Guangdong markets, prices of various 70g double - offset paper products remained unchanged week - on - week. Before tax, the pre - tax gross profit increased by 17 yuan, and after tax, the after - tax gross profit decreased by 15 yuan [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data - Industry Capacity: The industry is in a state of over - capacity. In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [17][21]. - Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization: This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry output was 157,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 47.7% [26]. - Weekly Sales and Inventory: This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry sales were 153,500 tons, and the enterprise inventory was 367,100 tons [32]. - Imports and Exports: In April, the import volume of double - offset paper was 13,000 tons, and the export volume was 69,600 tons [38]. - Inventory Structure: In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China; social inventory pressure was higher than enterprise inventory [44]. - Terminal Consumption: In recent years, the growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [49].