能源化工液化石油气周度报告-20250608

Report Information - Report Title: Liquefied Petroleum Gas Weekly Report - Report Date: June 8, 2025 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0020238 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03128004 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report Core View - The view is that demand is weak and prices are under short - term pressure. The logic is that from May 31 to June 6, the macro - expectation improved, the futures market fluctuated narrowly, while the spot market was under pressure due to loose supply and demand. The international LPG market price center moved down. Supply was sufficient this week, with civil demand remaining seasonally weak. Although the overall chemical end started to pick up, it was still weak, and demand support was insufficient, further pressuring prices. It is recommended to closely track the subsequent PDH device and logistics dynamics [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - International LPG market prices: As of June 6, the AFEI propane index fluctuated slightly, with MA5 down 0.85% to $540.30/ton; the US overall propane inventory was sufficient, and the MB price MA5 fell 2.46% to $373.75/ton. The cost of propane refrigerated cargo arriving in South China dropped to around $610/ton [4]. - Supply: Domestic LPG production increased for four consecutive weeks. Except for a slight decrease in the output of ether - after C4 this week, the production of civil gas and propane increased. Propane imports increased by 36.74% to 511,000 tons, and South China's inventory increased significantly to 661,300 tons (+11.11%) [4]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic propane dehydrogenation (PDH) devices changed little this week, remaining around 63%. Next week, Qingdao Jinneng's Phase I PDH is expected to resume operation, so the operating rate of Chinese PDH is expected to rise [4]. 2. Price & Spread - There are multiple price data graphs, including the prices of LPG, APS propane, and AFE propane futures contracts, as well as the prices and basis of domestic civil gas, imported gas, and ether - after C4 in different regions. There are also historical data on regional price premiums, discounts, and freight rates [8][11][15]. 3. Supply - US exports: There are graphs showing the export volume of US propane to different regions (Europe, China, Japan and South Korea) from 2019 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - Middle - East exports: There are graphs showing the export volume of LPG from the Middle - East region and individual countries (Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar) from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import volume of LPG in India, China, and Japan and South Korea [33][34][35]. - Domestic supply: This week, China's propane supply was 552,000 tons, a 33.3% increase from the previous week. Domestic refinery commodity volume was 41,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from last week. The international shipping volume was 511,000 tons, mainly in South China [52]. 4. Demand - Chemical demand: The operating rate of PDH was 63.01% (- 0.25), and the operating rate of MTBE was 54.72% (+0.48). There are also graphs showing the profit and operating rate of alkylation, MTBE, and PDH [55][56].