工业硅：库存仍累库，硅价存下行驱动，多晶硅：现货走弱，盘面推荐空配

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are both recommended for short - selling strategies [6][7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon has an oversupply pressure, and its futures price has a downward driving force. It is recommended to short at high prices. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 6800 - 7200 yuan/ton next week. - Polysilicon also has a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is advisable to short at high prices, and the expected trading range for next week is 33000 - 35000 yuan/ton [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from May 20 to June 6, 2025, are presented, showing a general downward trend [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Yunnan and Sichuan silicon plants resumed production this week, and Xinjiang silicon plants also increased their operation rates after the electricity price reduction. Southwest China's entry into the wet season still drives resumption of production [2] - Inventory: The overall industry inventory continued to accumulate. The social inventory decreased by 0.2 tons, while the factory inventory increased by 0.4 tons. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1.3 tons this week [2] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly output remains stable. It is expected that the production schedule in June will be 105,000 tons, an increase from May. The factory inventory decreased slightly this week, but the upstream inventory still has great pressure [3] - Demand: Terminal demand declined, leading to an expected reduction in silicon wafer production schedules from May to June. The silicon wafer price dropped, and the pricing power shifted to the downstream. It is expected that the actual signing price at the SNEC next week will fall [5] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Supply: The weekly production of silicone increased this week, and there are expectations of further resumption of production [3] - Demand: The terminal of silicone has not improved, and the consumption boost is limited. The prices of downstream silicone products continued to fall [3] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - Demand: The actual trading volume of rigid - demand orders did not increase significantly, and the export market was mainly based on rigid demand without hoarding [3]