碳酸锂：成本坍塌，而进口减量，多空博弈加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Currently, the game between bears and bulls in the lithium carbonate market is intensifying, with increasing trading volume and open interest. Bears believe that high ore inventory and collapsing costs are negative factors, while bulls expect a phased gap and inventory depletion due to reduced imports and slightly increased demand in June. From a capital perspective, the weakening basis in June, lower long - term contract prices than the market price, and hedging profits from processing externally purchased ore are expected to increase the willingness of industrial short - hedging on the market. - The price of the 2507 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 55,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. - The positive spread in the inter - period trading has shrunk this week. With the market price at a premium to the long - term contract benchmark price, reverse arbitrage is expected to be the main strategy later, but the reverse arbitrage space is limited due to the inventory depletion pattern in June. - It is recommended to conduct short - hedging at the upper end of the price range [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - This week, the main contract of lithium carbonate gradually shifted from 07 to 09. The 2507 contract closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, up 1,580 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2509 contract closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, up 1,820 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price fell 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 60,200 yuan/ton. The SMM basis (2507 contract) weakened by 2,280 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was + 480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 480 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. 2. Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - End - Lithium Ore - Supply: The price of spodumene concentrate dropped to 626 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50 US dollars/ton, and the cost continued to decline. Some planned shutdown enterprises postponed their shutdowns, and the domestic lithium carbonate smelting output increased this week, with the operating rates of spodumene, mica, and salt - lake enterprises rising. Affected by the cancellation of the floor price, the agreement volume between Chilean lithium salt plants and downstream in May decreased. In May, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 14,141 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 37%. Among them, the export to China was 9,655 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.89%, showing a phased decrease in imports. This week, the lithium carbonate output was 17,471 tons, an increase of 891 tons from last week, a growth rate of 5.37% [2]. 3. Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - End - Lithium Salt Products - Demand: Trump plans to cancel new energy vehicle subsidies. The domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 245,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 11.87%. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued an initiative to maintain a fair competition order and promote the healthy development of the industry, increasing penalties for illegal enterprises and guiding enterprises to break through with technological innovation. According to the production plan in June, the overall production of downstream cathode and battery enterprises increased slightly month - on - month. Due to the low profit of cathode materials, cathode material enterprises were in the active inventory reduction state. This week, the basis of lithium carbonate weakened. After a slight rebound in lithium prices, the trading procurement volume decreased, and downstream enterprises maintained rigid procurement [2]. - Inventory: The inventory is at a historical high, and the marginal change tends to be stable. The lithium carbonate inventory was 132,432 tons, a growth rate of 0.65%. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 33,000 tons. The cathode material inventory continued to be depleted [3]. 4. Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - End - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The report provides multiple charts related to the downstream consumption of lithium salts, including the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, inventory available days, production and operating rates of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of power lithium batteries, as well as the import and export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of lithium batteries in China [29][30][31]