能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20250608

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: June 8, 2025 - Analyst: Yang Honghan - Analyst Qualification Number: Z0021541 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a rebound, but there is still significant fundamental pressure in the medium term [2][4] Summary by Section 1. Market Judgment - Futures Static Valuation: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,100 - 11,700 yuan/ton. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is around 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton. When the main BR2507 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the Shandong market price, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. The theoretical bottom valuation is 11,100 yuan/ton [4] - Butadiene Fundamentals: Asian butadiene prices are stable. Domestic butadiene short - term trading has improved, with prices oscillating around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Supply - side开工率 is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month. Short - term imports have increased. Demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. Inventories at production enterprises have slightly increased, while port inventories have decreased. Overall, butadiene is expected to oscillate at a low level [4] - Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. Supply - side开工率 is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. Demand remains high this week, and substitution demand supports the total demand. Inventories are at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have weak driving force, and spot prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - Butadiene Rubber Futures: In the short term, on Thursday, due to the China - US leaders' call, the expectation of economic improvement increased, and the rubber sector rebounded at a low - valuation level. Butadiene rubber, as a low - valuation variety in the rubber sector and with the requirement of warrant cancellation on June 30, had a large rebound. In the medium term, the main contradiction in the market is the weak demand in the rubber sector. With sufficient supply of natural and synthetic rubber, weak demand drives the fundamentals downward [4] - Strategy: Short - term rebound, medium - term short - selling on rallies; the spread between NR - BR is expected to narrow [4] 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - Supply - Side Capacity Expansion: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than downstream industries at certain stages. The total new capacity in 2021 was 580,000 tons, 480,000 tons in 2022, 570,000 tons in 2023, 480,000 tons in 2024, and 860,000 tons are expected in 2025 [9] - Supply - Side开工率: The current butadiene industry开工率 is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to the concentrated maintenance of some ethylene plants [4] - Supply - Side Imports: Short - term imports of butadiene have increased [4] - Demand - Side Capacity of Downstream Products: The production capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expanding. For example, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhejiang Chuanhua, and other companies have new production capacities coming online. The production capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased significantly in 2024 and 2025 [18][27] - Demand - Side Operation of Downstream Products: The operation of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber plants varies, with some running at full capacity, some reducing loads, and some shutting down. The开工率 and profitability of ABS and SBS also show different trends [23][28] - Inventory: Butadiene production enterprise inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have decreased [4] 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Production: The weekly production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows certain fluctuations. The开工率 of production enterprises varies, with some running normally, some reducing loads, and some shutting down [37][38] - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Cost and Profit: The theoretical production cost and profit of butadiene rubber have changed over time, and the gross profit margin also shows different trends [39][40][41] - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Import and Export: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations [42][43] - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Inventory: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber are at different levels and show different trends [48][50] - Butadiene Rubber Demand - Side Tires: The inventory and开工率 of Shandong's all - steel and semi - steel tires show different trends, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [52][53]