铁矿石：预期摇摆，震荡反复

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the context of the industrial off - season, the real - demand driving force is limited. Although the news of the Sino - US presidential call strengthened the recent macro - expectations and led to a small - scale and phased rebound in iron ore and black prices, the future direction of the macro - narrative is highly uncertain, and it is too early to talk about a reversal. The sustainability of high exports is also highly controversial. Considering the expected increase in iron ore supply in the future, the sustainability of this small - scale rebound is poor, but potential upward risks at the macro and political levels still need attention [4][49] Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures Market: This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 fluctuated and declined, closing at 707.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 724,000 lots, a decrease of 9,700 lots [7] - Spot Market: This week, the spot prices of imported ores at ports decreased slightly, with some exceptions like the 56.5% super - special powder which increased. The prices of domestic ores also generally decreased. The Platts 62% index closed at $96.10 per dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.70 [8] 1.2 Spread Changes - Spot Variety Spread: This week, the prices of low - grade ores at ports were relatively firm, and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores continued to shrink [16] - Futures - Spot and Futures Inter - Month Spread: This week, the main iron ore 2509 contract was at a discount of 92.4 yuan/ton compared to the 61.5% PB powder spot at Qingdao Port, a reduction of 11.0 yuan/ton from the previous week. The 2509 - 2601 spread was 36.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the 2601 - 2605 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous week [20] 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - Foreign Ore Shipment and Domestic Arrival: As of May 23, the weekly shipment from Australia was 1.7494 million tons, and from Brazil was 0.837 million tons, a total of 2.5864 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 89,700 tons. The arrival volume at northern Chinese ports was 1.5408 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 482,000 tons [26] - Domestic Ore Capacity Utilization: As of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines nationwide was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% [27] - Iron Ore Freight: The freight from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was $23.46, an increase of $4.22 from the previous period; the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was $10.28, a week - on - week increase of $1.97 [28] 2.2 Demand - As of June 6, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 90.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 880,380 tons, a decrease of 470 tons from the previous week. The inflection point of molten iron has emerged, but the downstream construction is still at a relatively high level [37][38] 2.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 138.2669 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 398,900 tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory increased, while the Brazilian ore inventory decreased [40] 2.4 Steel Mill Profits - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly, but the spot prices followed up limitedly, resulting in a divergence in the profit trends of futures and spot in the finished - product segment. In terms of futures profit, as of June 6, the futures profit of the rebar 2510 contract was 82.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.20 yuan/ton from last week; the futures profit of the hot - rolled coil 2510 contract was 149.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.20 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of spot profit, as of June 6, the spot profit of rebar was 80.98 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.48 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot profit of hot - rolled coil was 110.98 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.48 yuan/ton from the previous week [43] 2.5 Technical Analysis - This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 first declined and then rose, closing at 707.5 yuan/ton. The short - term upper pressure level is around 802 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is around 640 yuan/ton [47]