美豆周度报告-20250608

Report Title - The report is titled "US Soybean Weekly Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The overall view is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market will generally fluctuate in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [4] Summary by Directory Market Price - The price of US soybeans fluctuated higher due to the upcoming talks between the China - US trade teams in London [6] - US soybean meal traded sideways [8] - The price of US soybean oil rebounded from a low level [12] - The spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports decreased slightly last week [14] - The purchase price at farms (Iowa) decreased slightly last week [16] - The spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa increased slightly last week [18] - The spot price of Brazilian soybeans remained basically stable [20][22] Supply Factors - The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas is 45%, the same as last week [25] - The temperature in US soybean - producing areas is normal [27] - Precipitation is scarce in the north - western region, while the central, southern, and eastern regions have good rainfall [29] - Brazil has entered the dry season, with most areas having scarce precipitation, and more obvious precipitation in the central and southern regions [31] - Most soybean - producing areas in Argentina are dry with normal temperatures, which is conducive to the harvesting work [33] - The sowing progress of US soybeans is 84%, up from 76% last week, higher than expected, the same period last year, and the five - year average [36] - The sowing progress of US corn is 93%, up from 87% last week, slightly lower than the regional market expectation of 94% [38] Demand Factors - The crushing profit of US soybeans is $1.9 per bushel, up from $1.85 per bushel last week [41] - The weekly export volume of US soybeans is 308,500 tons, up from 209,300 tons last week [43] - The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume is 268,300 tons, up from 194,900 tons last week [45] - The weekly net sales volume is 194,300 tons, up from 146,000 tons last week [47] - The sales volume of US soybeans for the next year is 3,500 tons, down from 32,800 tons last week [49] - The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [51] Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 286, indicating a basically neutral state [54] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [56][58] - In terms of CFTC positions, the net long position of soybeans is 35,500 lots, down from 64,300 lots last week [62] - The net long position of soybean oil is 34,700 lots, down from 59,000 lots last week [64] - The net short position of soybean meal is 86,400 lots, up from 79,400 lots last week [66]