可转债周度跟踪:仓位中性,择券为主-20250608
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-06-08 08:19
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fluctuated upward this week, with major broad - based indices and convertible bond indices showing a mild recovery. The market's main line is still unclear, and it is waiting for incremental information. The convertible bond market resonated with the equity market, with increased trading activity and a continued differentiation in the valuation structure. The focus of capital allocation has shifted from extreme elasticity to high certainty, and a "stable allocation + selective elasticity" dual - wheel drive strategy is maintained. In the bond market, the pressure of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit in the next three weeks is still large, and the pressure on cross - quarter liquidity cannot be ignored. It is difficult to see a smooth decline in interest rates in June [1][2]. - In the equity market, under the dual background of the adjustment of the public fund assessment mechanism and the phased easing of Sino - US tariffs, the main line is still unclear, and the style is differentiated. The dividend style has attracted wide attention, and the growth style is gradually recovering. The market value structure is biased towards small - cap growth. In terms of strategy, it is necessary to optimize strategies by combining new productive forces, institutional dividends, and the dynamic evolution of the valuation system. In terms of allocation, attention should be paid to the dividend, technology growth, and large - consumption sectors [8]. - For the convertible bond market, it is recommended to use a framework of "neutral position, bond selection as the foundation". The dumbbell strategy will still be dominant. In terms of allocation, focus on three directions: concentrating positions on high - rating, low - premium blue - chip convertible bonds; selecting medium - and high - priced thematic growth bonds; and conducting refined management in combination with clause events and credit marginal changes [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Observation - In the past week (from June 2nd to June 6th), major broad - based indices and convertible bond indices fluctuated upward, but the market style was still differentiated. The convertible bond information technology index, AA - and below index, convertible bond high - price index, and small - cap convertible bond index led the gains. In the bond market, the pressure of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit in the next three weeks is large, and it is difficult to see a smooth decline in interest rates in June [7]. - In the equity market, the main line is unclear, and the style is differentiated. The dividend style is popular, and the growth style is recovering. The market value structure is biased towards small - cap growth. Attention should be paid to the dividend, technology growth, and large - consumption sectors [8]. - The convertible bond market resonated with the equity market, showing a mild recovery, with increased trading activity and a continued differentiation in the valuation structure. A "stable allocation + selective elasticity" strategy is maintained, and a "neutral position, bond selection as the foundation" framework is recommended [9]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 3.2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, such as the one - week, two - week, 3 - month - since, one - month, two - month, half - year, and one - year changes of the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [10] 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Bonds - The report shows the top five and bottom five individual bonds in terms of weekly price changes and the top five and bottom five underlying stocks of individual bonds in terms of weekly price changes, but specific bond names are not provided [13][25] 3.2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The report presents the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with par values in different ranges (90 - 100, 100 - 110, 110 - 120) [19][21][31] 3.2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - The report shows the trends of the proportion of high - price bonds, low - price bonds, the proportion of bonds falling below the bond floor, and the median price of the convertible bond market [29][33]