Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Next week (06.09 - 06.13), the price center of Dalian soybean meal futures is expected to move up, while the soybean No. 1 futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For soybean meal, continue to focus on the weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas (goodness - of - growth rate, weather forecast) and Sino - U.S. trade consultations. The Sino - Canadian trade friction and consultations also affect the fluctuation of rapeseed meal, which indirectly impacts soybean meal. For domestic soybeans, the upper pressure is still the potential state - reserve soybean auction, while the small amount of market surplus grain and the stable - to - strong spot price support the downside space [7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs International Soybean Market Fundamentals - U.S. Soybean Sales and Shipment: In the week of May 29, 2025, the weekly net sales of U.S. soybeans increased month - on - month but were at the lower end of expectations. The 2024/25 U.S. soybean export shipment was about 310,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 47%, and the cumulative export shipment was about 44.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The weekly net sales of U.S. soybeans to China in the 2024/25 crop year was - 0.1 million tons [2]. - U.S. Soybean Planting Progress and Goodness - of - Growth Rate: As of the week of June 2, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 84%, compared with 78% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%. The initial goodness - of - growth rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68% and significantly lower than last year's 72%. However, the market focused more on the bearish impact of the faster planting progress and normal weather [2]. - Brazilian Soybean CNF Premium, Import Cost, and Crushing Profit: As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for July - September delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [2]. - U.S. Soybean - Producing Area Weather Forecast: According to the June 7, 2025, weather forecast, in the next two weeks (June 7 - June 21), the precipitation in the U.S. soybean - producing areas will be basically normal, and the temperature will be "low first and then high", with a neutral impact [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Trading Volume: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 120,000 tons, compared with about 80,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - Pick - up Volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 186,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the weekly average basis was about - 61 yuan/ton, compared with about - 25 yuan/ton in the previous week [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of May 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 50% and a year - on - year decrease of about 66% [5]. - Soybean Crushing Volume: The weekly soybean crushing volume decreased slightly week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.24 million tons, and the operating rate was about 63%. Next week (June 7 - June 13), the oil mills' soybean crushing volume is expected to be about 2.29 million tons, with an operating rate of 64% [5]. Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - Soybean Price: The soybean price was stable to strong. In some northeastern regions, the net - grain purchase price of soybeans increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; in some inland regions, the price remained flat at 5140 - 5280 yuan/ton; in the sales areas, the selling price of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton to 4620 - 4840 yuan/ton [6]. - New - Season Soybean Growth in Northeast China: In some northeastern producing areas, the new - season soybeans are growing well. As of Friday, the new - season soybeans in Heihe, Bei'an, Qiqihar, and Arongqi areas are growing well, and the soil moisture is normal due to recent rainfall [6]. - Sales Area Situation: The soybean price in the sales areas continued to make up for the increase, but the demand remained weak. The downstream market accepted the price increase generally and purchased as needed. The demand for terminal edible soybeans was weak, and the sales of domestic soybeans were slow, but the rigid demand still existed [6]. Futures Price Performance - U.S. Futures: In the week of June 6, 2025, the main U.S. soybean 07 contract rose 1.51% week - on - week, and the main U.S. soybean meal 07 contract fell 0.10% week - on - week [1]. - Domestic Futures: In the week of June 6, 2025, the main domestic soybean meal m2509 contract rose 1.42% week - on - week, and the main soybean No. 1 a2507 contract rose 0.78% week - on - week [2].
豆粕:关注天气与贸易磋商,盘面重心上移,豆一,现货稳中偏强,盘面偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-08 09:26