外汇期货周度报告：非农好于预期，美元短期回升-20250608

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has rebounded, with most stocks rising, bond yields mostly increasing, and the US bond yield reaching 4.5%. The US dollar index dropped 0.14% to 99.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3,310 per ounce, the VIX index fell to 16.77, and the spot commodity index closed higher, with Brent crude rising 6.7% [1][5][8] - The Trump administration's tariff policy continues to disrupt the market. The US economic data is mixed, with the May ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs falling short of expectations, showing stagflation risks. The May US non - farm payroll report supports the Fed to continue to wait and see. Short - term monetary policy is more concerned about inflation than the job market, and the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in June [2][10] - The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp to 2%, but the stance is hawkish. The market expects the ECB to pause rate cuts in July [2][10] - The May non - farm payroll data was better than expected, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. Short - term dollar index is expected to oscillate [35][36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded. Most stocks rose, and bond yields mostly increased, with the US bond yield reaching 4.5%. The US dollar index dropped 0.14% to 99.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3,310 per ounce, the VIX index fell to 16.77, and the spot commodity index closed higher, with Brent crude rising 6.9% to $68.16 per barrel [1][5][8] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stocks mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, the Eurozone stocks mostly closed higher, emerging market stocks were mixed, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.16%, and the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.59% [9][10] - The Trump administration's tariff policy and the upcoming Sino - US second - round negotiation affected the market sentiment. The US economic data is mixed, and the non - farm payroll report supports the Fed to continue to wait and see [10] - The domestic stock market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [12] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US bond yield reaching 4.5%, and most Eurozone countries' bond yields rising. Emerging market bond yields mostly declined [13][17][19] - The May US non - farm payroll report increased market concerns about inflation. The ECB cut rates but the stance is hawkish, and the short - term risk of European and American bond yields is upward [18] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly decreased to 1.69%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted and widened to 281bp. The domestic bond market is oscillating [20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.14% to 99.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.23%, the euro rose 0.43%, the pound rose 0.51%, the yen fell 0.58%, and other currencies showed different trends [24][26][27] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,310 per ounce, and the price is oscillating. The short - term gold price lacks upward momentum and is still in an oscillating range [30] - Brent crude rose 6.7% to $68.16 per barrel. Market risk appetite rebounded, industrial products rebounded, and the commodity spot index closed higher [30] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The May non - farm payroll data was better than expected, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. The economic fundamentals are deteriorating, and the dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short term [31][35][36] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's May CPI and import - export data; US May New York Fed inflation expectations [37] - Tuesday: US May NFIB small business confidence index; China's May financial data [37] - Wednesday: US May CPI [37] - Thursday: US May PPI, initial jobless claims; 10 - year US Treasury bond auction [37] - Friday: US June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations [37]