市场对贸易摩擦的学习效应

Group 1: Market Analysis of Trade Friction - The report reviews the impact of the US-China trade friction from 2018 to 2019, categorizing it into seven phases based on eight major events, highlighting the volatility in the market during these periods [1][9][12] - During the phase from May 29, 2018, to November 30, 2018, the market experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 17% [9][13] - Following a series of negotiations and agreements, the market rebounded significantly from December 1, 2018, to May 4, 2019, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 18.94% [9][13] Group 2: Domestic Industrial Production - The industrial production index has shown signs of recovery, with specific sectors such as methanol, high furnace production in Tangshan, polyester filament, and soda ash experiencing growth, while Shandong's independent refineries and tire production have declined [17][19] - The subway passenger volume in major cities has decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in urban mobility [17][18] Group 3: International Employment Trends - In May, the US non-farm employment figures showed a decline but were still above expectations, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the forecast of 126,000 [29][30] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while wage growth exceeded predictions with an average hourly wage increase of 0.4% [29][30] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [4] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having low valuations, with potential for recovery driven by declining interest rates and policy support [4]