重视稳定现金流和潜在高股息——房地产行业周度观点更新

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [10] Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has become more proactive, leading to improved market expectations, although marginal downward pressure has increased since April [3] - The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [3] - The importance of real estate in the economic internal circulation cannot be overlooked, emphasizing developers with regional and product advantages, as well as leading brokerage firms and state-owned property management companies with stable cash flows [3] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 1.07% this week, with an excess return of +0.19% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 22 out of 32 industries [4] - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has decreased by 4.94%, with an excess return of -3.39% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29 out of 32 [4] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced the results of the 2025 urban renewal action evaluation, with over 20 cities receiving support exceeding 20 billion yuan for urban renewal actions [5] - Jiangsu Province released its 2025 housing and urban construction work points, focusing on policies to stabilize the real estate market and plans to collect 50,000 units of affordable rental housing [5] Sales Trends - New home and second-hand home registrations in sample cities continue to decline year-on-year, with new home transaction area down by 6.2% and second-hand home transaction area up by 2.5% [6] - As of June 6, new home transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 13.2% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions decreased by 2.9% [6] Investment Opportunities - In the broad real estate sector, at least three areas are highlighted for stable cash flow and potential high dividends: 1. Comprehensive real estate companies, such as China Resources Land, including some private real estate companies post-risk clearance [7] 2. Commercial real estate companies, particularly some Hong Kong-funded enterprises [7] 3. Light asset companies, including leading brokerage firms and state-owned property management companies, which generally have excess cash and stable cash flow [7]