地方债周度跟踪：新增地方债发行降速，10Y减国债利差小幅收窄-20250608

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased both in the current period and are expected to decline in the next period. The current period (2025.06.02 - 2025.06.08) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 109.595 billion/RMB 50.751 billion, and the next period (2025.06.09 - 2025.06.15) is expected to be RMB 107.786 billion/RMB -43.012 billion [3]. - The issuance of new local government bonds has not accelerated, and the cumulative issuance progress is lower than that in 2023 but higher than in 2024. As of June 6, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.0% and 35.1% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 45.1% and 35.2% [3]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in June 2025 totals RMB 886.6 billion, including RMB 496.3 billion of new special bonds. As of June 6, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of RMB 886.6 billion, with RMB 496.3 billion of new special bonds [3]. - The current period saw the issuance of RMB 1.6 billion of special new special bonds and RMB 27.7 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts. As of June 6, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached RMB 243.9 billion, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts reached RMB 1656.8 billion, with an issuance progress of 82.8% [3]. - Currently, local government bonds have both allocation and trading value. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities firm self - operations, local government bonds have allocation value, especially those with maturities of 7 years and above, particularly the 10/15/30 - year bonds. For institutions such as public funds, local government bonds still have trading value, and investment opportunities can be seized. Attention can be paid to 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - 30 - year local government bonds [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds decreased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The current period's total issuance of local government bonds was RMB 109.595 billion (compared to RMB 228.212 billion in the previous period), and the next period's forecasted issuance is RMB 107.786 billion. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 14.27 years, longer than the previous period's 13.26 years [3][11]. - As of June 6, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.0% and 35.1% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 45.1% and 35.2%. The cumulative issuance progress is lower than that in 2023 but higher than in 2024 [3][19]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in June 2025 totals RMB 886.6 billion, including RMB 496.3 billion of new special bonds. As of June 6, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed the planned issuance [3]. - The current period saw the issuance of RMB 1.6 billion of special new special bonds and RMB 27.7 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts. As of June 6, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached RMB 243.9 billion, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts reached RMB 1656.8 billion, with an issuance progress of 82.8% [3]. 3.2 This period, the spread between 10 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed slightly, and the weekly turnover rate decreased month - on - month - The spread between 10 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by 1.35 BP, currently at 21.53 BP as of June 6, 2025. The spread between 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds remained unchanged, currently at 23.40 BP [27][31]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.69%, a month - on - month decrease from the previous period's 0.73% [36].