KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-06-08 11:09Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the acceleration of pig weight reduction and the resulting supply contraction will likely support a gradual increase in pig prices in the second half of 2025. The current downward pressure on pig prices is expected to be limited due to a forthcoming supply gap [4][13] - The beef market is anticipated to remain strong through 2025-2026, driven by slow recovery in supply and the price disparity between pork and beef. Global beef prices reached a historical high of 294.07 cents per pound in April 2025, up 8.69% year-on-year [5][23] - The report emphasizes the low valuation of the pig farming sector, presenting a value opportunity for investors. It recommends several companies including Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [6][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report notes that the acceleration of pig weight reduction has led to a short-term decline in pig prices, with the national average price at 14.07 yuan/kg as of June 6, 2025, down 0.37 yuan/kg week-on-week and 4.38% year-on-year. The supply gap is expected to support prices in the latter half of 2025 [4][13][20] Weekly Market Performance - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 0.22 percentage points, with the agricultural index rising by 0.91% compared to a 1.13% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index. The pet food sector showed the highest gains [6][33] Price Tracking - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of external three-yuan pigs was 14.06 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 34.51 yuan/kg, down 0.73 yuan/kg. The profit for self-bred pigs was 33.83 yuan/head, while the profit for purchased piglets was -120.80 yuan/head [7][45][47] Recommendations - The report recommends investments in the pig farming sector due to its low valuation and potential for recovery, highlighting companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Juxing Agriculture. It also suggests investing in the feed sector, which benefits from strong overseas demand [6][29][32]