宏观量化经济指数周报20250608：融资需求回暖，5月社融增速或继续抬升-20250608

Economic Indicators - As of June 8, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.19%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] - The ELI index is at -1.04%, down 0.17 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] Financing and Social Financing - In May 2025, new loans are expected to be between 700 billion and 800 billion RMB, slightly lower than the same period last year by 0.25 to 0.15 trillion RMB[13] - Government bond financing in May reached 1.49 trillion RMB, an increase of 0.17 trillion RMB compared to the same period last year[13] - The total social financing scale is expected to increase by 2.2 to 2.5 trillion RMB in May, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for April 2025 due to a low base effect from last year[13] Industrial Production - The operating rate for the automotive tire industry has decreased, with full steel tires at 63.47% and semi-steel tires at 73.86%, down 1.33 and 4.39 percentage points respectively[15] - The national high furnace operating rate is recorded at 83.54%, down 0.35 percentage points from the previous week[15] Consumption Trends - Passenger car retail sales in May increased by 13% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 10%[22] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.63 RMB/kg, down 0.11 RMB/kg from the previous week[38] Export Performance - The Shanghai container freight index rose to 2240.35 points, an increase of 167.64 points from the previous week[33] - The Baltic Dry Index averaged 1520.00 points, up 177.50 points from the previous week[33] Risks - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of improvements in the real estate market[48]