钢铁行业周报（20250602-20250606）：供给持续回落，关注淡季需求韧性-20250608

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to a bottoming out of steel prices [2][3]. - The current demand situation suggests that inventory may soon reach a turning point, despite the ongoing weak demand [2]. - The industry is expected to maintain a bottoming and fluctuating price trend in the short term due to increased maintenance in steel mills, which may lead to supply contraction [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 6, the prices for five major steel products are reported as follows: rebar at 3,218 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,558 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,224 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,646 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,451 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of +0.05%, +0.08%, +0.10%, -0.12%, and -0.64% respectively [1][15]. - The total production of the five major products is 8.8038 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.418 million tons, down 0.11 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [1]. - The operating rate for electric arc furnaces is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week-on-week [1]. (b) Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products is 8.8217 million tons, a decrease of 316.2 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate shows week-on-week changes of -196.5 thousand tons, -2.6 thousand tons, -60.1 thousand tons, +13.8 thousand tons, and -70.9 thousand tons respectively [1]. (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory is 13.6381 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 15.3 thousand tons to 9.3101 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 2.6 thousand tons to 4.3280 million tons [1]. (d) Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,362 CNY/ton, down 37 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. - The gross profit per ton for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil is +99 CNY/ton, +33 CNY/ton, and -62 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +9 CNY/ton, 0 CNY/ton, and +62 CNY/ton [1]. 3. Industry Policy and Outlook - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to optimize industrial layout and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while increasing high-end capacity supply [3][4]. - The steel industry is expected to continue its profit recovery, with potential for greater elasticity in profits if supply-side adjustments are effectively implemented [9][10].