样本城市周度高频数据全追踪：6月以来新房和二手房网签面积均同比降幅扩大-20250608

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas since June, with the decline rate expanding [1][9] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with indicators suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market, driven by policy adjustments and liquidity improvements [5][49] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in sample cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 25%, which is an increase of 12 percentage points compared to May [4] - The decline in new housing transactions is particularly pronounced in second-tier cities, with a year-on-year drop of 28% [4][9] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - Second-hand housing transaction areas also experienced a year-on-year decline of 24%, with a similar expansion in the decline rate compared to May [4] - The report notes that the second-hand housing market is facing a more severe contraction than the new housing market [5] Land Acquisition - From January to May 2025, the cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline of 7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [21] - The report indicates that the land acquisition market is experiencing a mixed trend, with some cities showing significant price increases despite declining transaction volumes [21][26] Market Indicators - The report mentions that the confidence index for new and second-hand housing transactions has shown a marginal decline, indicating a cautious outlook among buyers [5][51] - The overall market sentiment index for 50 cities has also shown a narrowing year-on-year increase, reflecting a more subdued market environment [5][52] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the new housing market may see marginal improvements before the second-hand market, driven by supply constraints and quality enhancements [5] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-quality residential supply and the narrowing gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates as key variables for future market performance [5]