估值周观察(6月第2期):小盘成长、TMT估值扩张幅度较大
Guoxin Securities·2025-06-08 13:06

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant expansion in valuations for small-cap growth and TMT sectors, with overall market trends showing a mild upward trajectory [2][9]. Global Market Overview - The global equity markets experienced an overall increase, with the Korean market leading, as the KOSPI50 index rose by 5.04% and the Korean Composite Index by 4.24%. Major US indices increased by 1%-2%, while Hong Kong markets rebounded with approximately 2% gains. Japan's market, however, saw a decline [2][9]. - Valuation-wise, the global equity market showed a mild expansion, with the German DAX index experiencing the largest PE expansion of 1.35x, maintaining a valuation percentile above 99% [2][9]. A-Share Market Analysis - A-shares showed a mild expansion in core broad-based valuations, with the National Securities 2000 and CSI 1000 indices rising by 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively, and experiencing the largest PE expansions of 1.08x and 0.79x [2][26]. - The small-cap growth sector demonstrated strong valuation expansion, with the CSI 2000 index showing a significant PE expansion of 2.96x [2][26]. Industry Performance - The report highlights that most primary industries experienced gains, with the TMT sector showing notable performance. The communication, electronics, and computer industries rose by 5.27%, 3.6%, and 2.79%, respectively. Additionally, upstream resources like non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals also saw significant increases of 3.74% and 2.61% [2][48]. - The overall PE for primary industries showed a mild expansion, with the computer and electronics sectors leading with expansions of 2.18x and 1.76x, respectively [2][48]. Valuation Comparisons - The report notes a clear differentiation in valuation attractiveness across sectors, particularly within the essential consumer sector. The financial sector, represented by banks, is at historically high valuation levels, while TMT sectors are at mid-to-long-term high valuations [2][48]. - Emerging industries, particularly in the digital economy, showed strong performance, with IDC, 5G, and cloud computing sectors rising by 6.41%, 4.98%, and 3.93%, respectively [2][48].