海外周报：5月非农超预期带动降息预期进一步降温

Employment Data - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expectation of 126,000, while the previous two months' data was revised down by 95,000[1] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, matching expectations and previous values[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%[1] Market Reactions - The market's perception of a non-recessionary U.S. economy led to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations, with the probability of a September rate cut falling to 68.3%[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 10.52 basis points to 4.506% during the week[2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.50% and 2.18%, respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment[2] Economic Indicators - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5, below the expected 49.5, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] - The ISM services PMI dropped to 49.9, marking the first time it fell below the neutral line in nearly a year[2] - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $61.6 billion in April, the lowest level in 2023, compared to a previous value of $138.3 billion[2] Inflation Outlook - The upcoming May CPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[3] - Analysts predict that inflation will gradually rise due to tariff-induced price disturbances, but the overall increase is expected to be manageable[3] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy actions from the Trump administration and excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflationary pressures[3]