金属周期品高频数据周报：5月下旬重点钢企粗钢日均产量创近4个月新低水平-20250608

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6]. Core Insights - In late May, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises reached a four-month low, indicating a potential downturn in production [2][45]. - The financing environment index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in May 2025 was 49.09, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.20%, suggesting slight improvement in liquidity conditions [12][22]. - The report highlights a correlation between M1 and M2 growth rates and the Shanghai Composite Index, with the M1-M2 growth rate difference showing a positive trend [12][22]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - The BCI SME financing environment index for May 2025 is 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [12]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.5 percentage points in April 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [12][22]. - London gold prices increased by 0.64% compared to the previous week [12]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output for key enterprises in late May was 2.091 million tons, marking a 4.91% decrease from April [2][45]. - The national capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points [45]. - The cement price index decreased by 1.44% this week, while the average price of rebar increased by 0.32% [2][64]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [2]. - The prices of major commodities showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel down 0.81% and copper up 0.87% [2]. Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 was 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [4]. - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1154.98 points, up 3.34% from the previous week [4]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.88%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +3.24% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels following the recent revisions to the steel industry standards [5].