开源证券晨会纪要-20250608

Macro Economic Insights - The US job market shows signs of concern, with May non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations but reflecting a downward revision in previous months [4][5][8] - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, while the labor participation rate has declined to approximately 62.4% [6][8] - The labor market's supply-demand relationship is tightening, with job openings increasing to 7.391 million in April, indicating a marginal rise in labor market pressure [7][8] Investment Strategy - The first quarter earnings report indicates a shift from negative to positive profit growth, primarily due to a low base effect rather than an inherent improvement in profitability [12][14] - The overall demand in the A-share market remains weak, with a continuous decline in return on equity (ROE) across non-financial sectors [12][13] - The report suggests that the intrinsic profit bottom for A-shares is not expected until at least the third quarter of this year [14] Fixed Income Market - The central bank is expected to restart bond purchases as part of a shift in monetary policy, following a meeting that emphasized maintaining liquidity to support the real economy [16][18][20] - The report highlights a significant decline in the growth rate of both assets and liabilities for city investment platforms, indicating a trend towards consolidation and quality improvement [26][27] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The REITs market is experiencing growth, with the index showing a year-on-year increase of 10.7% and a month-on-month increase of 1.55% [35][37] - The report notes that infrastructure REITs, particularly in highways, are performing well, driven by favorable policies and increased market participation [35][36] Agricultural Sector - The report indicates a potential increase in pig prices in the second half of 2025 due to supply constraints, despite a current decline in prices [51][52] - The beef market is expected to remain strong, supported by a slow recovery in supply and increasing demand [52][53] Technology Sector - The AI sector continues to show robust growth, with significant innovations and applications emerging, particularly in automation and task management [45][46][48] - Companies in the AI space, such as Nvidia and Broadcom, are reporting strong earnings, validating the high demand for AI capabilities [48][49]