稀土战略价值凸显，关注白银股补涨机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11]. Core Insights - The narrative of recession is temporarily hindered by strong employment data, which reduces interest rate cut expectations and suppresses gold prices. The commodity sector is expected to continue in a wide fluctuation pattern in the short term, while the equity side remains optimistic due to overall undervaluation. Notably, silver shows a strong rebound trend, with potential for significant recovery given its current weak silver-gold ratio [2][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The narrative of recession is temporarily hindered, with strong employment data reducing interest rate cut expectations, pushing the timeline for cuts to September and reducing the number of cuts to two. Gold prices are expected to maintain a wide fluctuation pattern, supported by safe-haven demand but facing potential outflows from interest rate-driven funds. The equity side benefits from low valuations, maintaining good cost-performance ratios. Silver has shown rapid recovery, triggering a rally in silver stocks, with the silver-gold ratio at historical lows, indicating substantial recovery potential. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Shengda Resources [6][9]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices have stabilized due to U.S. restocking and a weaker dollar. Copper prices rose by 1.8% on the LME and 1.7% on the SHFE, driven by U.S. tariff increases on steel and aluminum, which boosted copper prices globally. Economic data from the U.S. has weakened, suppressing the dollar and supporting commodity prices. The report highlights that copper inventories increased by 0.59% week-on-week, while aluminum inventories decreased by 1.68% year-on-year. The report suggests a cautious outlook for copper and aluminum, with expectations for a gradual reversal in prices as interest rate cuts and domestic stimulus policies are anticipated [7][8]. Strategic and Energy Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic value of rare earths and tungsten, with the potential for price recovery in the rare earth sector due to trade tensions and international instability. The integration of major rare earth groups and stricter management of overseas mines are expected to enhance industry concentration. The report anticipates a recovery in rare earth prices as export demands increase. Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand from various sectors. The report also highlights the importance of cobalt and nickel, with supply control policies in resource-rich countries likely to support prices [9][10]. Market Performance - The report notes that the metal materials and mining sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 3.05% increase compared to a 1.13% rise in the index. The precious metals sector saw a 5.13% increase, while the rare earth sector rose by 5.93% [17][20]. Price Movements - Recent price movements indicate a general upward trend in base metals, with LME copper and aluminum prices increasing by 1.8% and 0.1%, respectively. Precious metals also saw gains, with Comex silver rising by 9.2% and SHFE silver by 7.7% [26][29]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and cost advantages in the copper and aluminum sectors, as well as those in the rare earth and tungsten markets, to capitalize on potential price recoveries [9][10].