固定收益点评：债市还有哪些隐忧？

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The bond market is likely to remain volatile due to upcoming Sino-US economic and trade talks, large government bond supply pressure, and weak institutional allocation power. However, considering the central bank's obvious care, the probability of a significant interest rate adjustment is low. It is recommended to allocate bonds on price increases. Further downward movement of the interest rate curve requires a weakening of exports, a reduction in supply pressure, or the start of a new interest rate cut cycle [4][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Bond Market Situation As of June 6, 2025, after the cross - month period, the funding rate has eased, with DR007 dropping to 1.53%, but the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is still running between 1.6 - 1.7%. The report analyzes the potential risks in the bond market [5]. 3.2 Risk Points in the Bond Market - Trade friction mitigation: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism is upcoming, and trade friction is expected to ease. Port high - frequency data shows that since May, port container throughput and cargo throughput have been higher than the same period last year, and the year - on - year export growth rate in May may continue to be resilient [4][7]. - Bond market supply pressure: In June, the issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to increase significantly. The government debt supply scale (net Treasury bond financing + new local bonds) is estimated to reach 1.37 trillion yuan, which may cause some disturbances to bond market interest rates. However, the net issuance pressure of certificates of deposit is controllable, and the government bond supply pressure will significantly ease in July [4][14][16]. - Weak institutional allocation power: At the bank end, banks tend to sell bonds to realize floating profits to adjust profits at the end of the quarter, and the bond allocation power may weaken marginally. At the insurance end, the growth rate of premium income has declined significantly this year, and the demand for bonds is limited [4][21].