综合晨报：美国5月非农就业数据好于预期-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, pay attention to callback risks [16] - US Dollar Index: Short - term, maintain volatility [20] - US Stock Index Futures: Do not recommend chasing high, still in a volatile market [24] - Treasury Bond Futures: Adopt a bullish approach [26] - A - share Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation [30] - Palm Oil: Pay attention to the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity, price expected to oscillate [34] - Soybean Oil: Place in the short - allocation position [34] - Coking Coal/Coke: Treat as a short - term rebound, be cautious about chasing high, recommend waiting and seeing [36] - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly [40] - Cotton: Hold a cautiously optimistic view with limited upside [44] - Soybean Meal: Futures short - term oscillate, greater probability of upward drive in the future; spot basis remains weak [48] - Corn Starch: CS07 - C07 may maintain low - level oscillation; CS09 - C09 has the expectation of repair [49] - Corn: Before the contract change, hold 07 long positions with low cost; for new contracts after 09, adopt a weakly bearish approach [50] - Rebar/Hot - rolled Coil: Spot should be hedged on rebounds [56] - Copper: Short - term, recommend waiting and seeing, price likely to oscillate at a high level [61] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [62] - Polysilicon: Consider short - term short and long - term long, pay attention to position management when building positions on the left [65] - Industrial Silicon: Consider short - selling lightly after a rebound, expect low - level oscillation [67] - Lead: Short - term, wait and see; gradually pay attention to mid - line long opportunities [68] - Zinc: Short - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds; recommend long - term internal - external positive spread [71] - Nickel: Short - term, wait and see; consider selling put options on dips; mid - line, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds after Q3 [74] - Carbon Emissions: EU carbon price short - term oscillates [76] - Crude Oil: Market risk appetite supports oil price, but upside space may be limited [78] - Caustic Soda: The 09 contract's downside space is limited due to large discount [80] - Pulp: Expected to oscillate [82] - PVC: Expected to oscillate weakly [83] - Bottle Chip: Place long positions on the bottle chip processing fee on dips [86] - Soda Ash: Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium - term [87] - Float Glass: Spot price has downward adjustment space; short - term, the futures price is affected by market risk preference [89] 2. Core Views - The US May non - farm payroll data was better than expected, the labor market remained resilient, and the short - term US dollar index maintained volatility [2][19] - In the context of high necessity for stable growth and low constraints on stable exchange rates, there is a basis for further loosening of liquidity, and incremental monetary policies are expected to be introduced in Q3, so the bond market is starting to accumulate strength for a bull market [3][26] - A - share investors' bets on TACO trading were successful, but the mismatch between the slow change in domestic fundamentals and high market sentiment needs to be repaired [4][29] - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the macro environment, and their fundamentals did not change significantly in the short term [5][35] - The left - side long - position in industrial silicon faced risks, and short - selling lightly after a rebound could be considered [6][67] - The decline in US oil rig numbers supported the rebound of oil prices [7][77] 3. Summaries by Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - China's gold reserves increased slightly in May. The US May non - farm payroll report was better than expected, which supported the Fed to continue to wait and see, postponed the market's interest - rate cut expectation to September, and put pressure on gold. The wage growth in the non - farm data increased the inflation risk, and the employment market's weakening trend remained unchanged [13][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple events occurred in the US, including conflicts and Trump's call for interest - rate cuts. The US May non - farm data was better than expected, and the labor market remained resilient, so the short - term US dollar index maintained volatility [17][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US consumer credit increased sharply in April, and the Fed official believed that it was difficult to cut interest rates before September. The US May non - farm data maintained a certain degree of resilience, but there were still concerns about stagflation in the US economy, and the US stock market was still in a volatile market [21][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Although there were uncertainties in short - term liquidity, in the long run, there was a basis for further loosening of liquidity, and the bond market was expected to strengthen [25][26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - High - level Sino - US economic and trade consultations were about to be held, and the Ministry of Commerce approved some rare - earth export license applications. A - share market sentiment was high, but the mismatch between fundamentals and sentiment needed to be repaired [27][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production increased in early June, and the domestic soybean oil press volume was expected to rise. Palm oil prices were expected to oscillate, and soybean oil was recommended to be placed in the short - allocation position [31][34] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in Lvliang was weak. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke did not change significantly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro environment [35][36] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The domestic sugar sales rate was high in May, but the import of raw sugar was expected to increase. The domestic sugar market was expected to be affected by external markets and imports, and Zhengzhou sugar was expected to oscillate weakly [39][40] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The demand for Pakistani yarn was limited, and Brazil's cotton export decline widened. The US cotton export sales were sluggish. The domestic cotton market was affected by multiple factors, and a cautiously optimistic view was held [41][44] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean sales rate was lower than previous years, and Argentina's soybean harvest was nearly completed. The domestic soybean press volume was expected to rise, and the soybean meal supply was increasing. The futures were expected to oscillate, and the spot basis was weak [45][48] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profit of corn starch enterprises in some regions improved slightly. The starch market was expected to improve marginally, and the spread between CS07 - C07 and CS09 - C09 had different trends [49] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat market price was under pressure. The corn contract change was slow, and the price oscillated. The wheat price decline affected the corn market, and different strategies were recommended for different contracts [50] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - rolled Coil) - The average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased in late May. The steel price rebounded slightly, but the long - term trend was still bearish due to weak external demand [51][55] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A Norwegian copper mine project obtained EU strategic status, and LME copper inventory fell to a two - year low. The short - term macro factors were favorable to copper prices, but the inventory trends at home and abroad were different, and the price was expected to oscillate at a high level [57][61] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A Bolivian lithium mining contract was suspended. The inventory pressure of lithium carbonate in June was relieved, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [62] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A HJT battery and component project was about to be put into production. The silicon material market was in a stalemate, and the production schedule in June was increased. Consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [63][65] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and start - up rates of industrial silicon in different regions changed. The demand was weak, and the price was at a low level. Short - selling lightly after a rebound could be considered [66][67] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was in a discount state. The supply had marginal reduction, and the demand was at a low level. Short - term wait - and - see, and pay attention to mid - line long opportunities [68] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in a discount state. The zinc supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. Short - sell on rallies and consider long - term internal - external positive spread [69][71] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - There were environmental issues in an Indonesian nickel mine. The nickel price oscillated at a low level, and the supply and demand on the mine and nickel - iron sides had different trends [72][73] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price increased slightly. The natural gas market affected the carbon market, and the EU's climate target proposal would affect the carbon market's development [75] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased significantly, which supported the rebound of oil prices [77] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The trading of the caustic soda market in Shandong was stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was average. The 09 contract's downside space was limited [79][80] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The prices of imported wood pulp in the spot market fluctuated. The futures price oscillated, and the market was expected to oscillate [81][82] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC increased, but the downstream procurement was inactive. The PVC market was expected to oscillate weakly [83] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly stable. The industry had high supply pressure, and the processing fee was at a low level. Consider building long positions on the processing fee on dips [84][86] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was average. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium - term [87] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The market was affected by different factors in different regions. The spot price had downward adjustment space [88][89]