五矿期货农产品早报-20250609

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as rainfall in the US, Brazilian soybean sales, and trade relations. The new - year US soybean may be in a process of bottom - building, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation with external cost increase and domestic supply pressure [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has short - term support from low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts, but the price is under pressure if the production continues to recover. The overall trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile [6][7][8]. - The sugar market may weaken in the future as the international supply situation eases and domestic imports are expected to increase [10][11]. - The cotton market is expected to have a short - term volatile trend with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [13][15]. - The egg market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term, and the trading strategy is to short on rallies for the near - month contracts [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weak in the short term, with near - month contracts having limited decline due to the discount, and the far - month contracts waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/M粕类 - Market Situation: US soybean rose slightly on Friday due to Sino - US contact and local drought. Domestic soybean meal spot was stable or slightly up on the weekend, with high supply and weak trading. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. - Factors Affecting the Market: Future rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is mixed, and Brazilian soybean premiums may rise. The 25/26 US soybean area is decreasing, making the total output likely to decline. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory is low due to previous delayed start - up [3][5]. - Trading Strategy: For the 09 soybean meal contract, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market at the lower end of the cost range and whether domestic pressure and bullish factors are fully traded at the upper end [5]. Oils - Important Information: Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May and early June. Brazilian soybean sales are delayed. The US soybean yield and planting area estimates are released. The palm oil inventory in some regions is low, and India cut the palm oil import tariff [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: The oil market is expected to be volatile, with bearish factors such as the decline of the crude oil center and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy, and bullish factors such as low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts [8]. Sugar - Key Information: Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong on Friday. Spot sugar prices in different regions had different trends. Brazilian sugar exports to China increased in May, and the waiting and in - transit volume to China remained unchanged [10]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar supply may be easing, and domestic sugar prices are likely to weaken as imports increase [11]. Cotton - Key Information: Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded on Friday. The spot price increased slightly, and the spinning and weaving factory start - up rates decreased slightly. The national cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year [13]. - Trading Strategy: The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [15]. Eggs - Spot Information: Egg prices were stable or slightly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement. The cold - storage egg reserves increased as prices fell [17]. - Trading Strategy: The egg market is expected to be stable and weak. For the near - month contracts, short on rallies, and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts when the position is large [18]. Pigs - Spot Information: Pig prices were mainly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and weak terminal demand due to rising temperatures [20]. - Trading Strategy: The near - month pig contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - month contracts wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [21].