房地产行业研究周报：城更支持再扩围，关注中央预算内投资增量

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The central government is expanding support for urban renewal actions, with a focus on enhancing urban infrastructure and improving living conditions. This includes a planned investment of 2.9 trillion yuan in over 60,000 urban renewal projects in 2024 [2][10][12]. - The report indicates that the real estate market is approaching a turning point, with expectations of incremental policy support to stabilize the industry. There is a growing consensus on the market bottom, suggesting a smoother logic for short-term policy speculation and long-term valuation recovery [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Urban Renewal Support - In June 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced support for 20 cities in urban renewal actions, with a focus on infrastructure improvement and urban quality enhancement [9][10]. - The central government plans to provide fixed subsidies for cities undertaking urban renewal, with varying amounts based on regional classifications [10][11]. 2. Market Overview - The new housing market saw a transaction area of 211 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 19.53% in May 2025. The inventory reached 105.11 million square meters, with faster absorption in first and second-tier cities compared to third-tier cities [3][18]. - The second-hand housing market recorded a transaction area of 143 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 19.93% [26]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading real estate companies with product advantages and regional firms with improving market shares [14]. - Specific companies to watch include: Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Development, and Beike [14][15].