国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250609

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the trends of various commodities in the black series on June 9, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The overall view is that most commodities are in a state of wide - range oscillation or low - level oscillation, with expected repeated trends and some affected by accident disturbances or demand release factors [2][4][6][9][12][16][20]. Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - Market Trend: Expected to be wide - range oscillating with repeated expectations [2][4]. - Fundamental Data: The futures price of 12509 contract was 701.0 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan (-0.50%); the open - mouth ore prices such as Carajás fines (65%) decreased by 4.0 yuan to 820.0 yuan/ton. The base difference and spread between different contracts also changed [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Trend: Both are expected to be in low - level oscillation [2][6]. - Fundamental Data: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,975 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan (0.57%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,092 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan (0.55%). Spot prices in different regions also had certain increases [6]. - Macro and Industry News: In late May 2025, the average daily production of key steel enterprises showed different trends; steel production increased by 2.5% daily. On June 5, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data of different varieties changed [7][8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Trend: Both are expected to be wide - range oscillating [2][9]. - Fundamental Data: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2507 contract was 5206 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2509 contract was 5538 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan. Spot prices and various spreads also changed [9]. - Macro and Industry News: On June 6, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and the inventory of manganese ore in ports changed [9]. Coke and Coking Coal - Market Trend: Coke has completed three rounds of price cuts and is expected to be wide - range oscillating; coking coal is affected by accident disturbances and is also expected to be wide - range oscillating [2][12]. - Fundamental Data: The futures price of JM2509 coking coal contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan (2.84%); the futures price of J2509 coke contract was 1350.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan (0.63%). Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [12]. - Price and Position Information: Northern port coking coal quotes and the CCI metallurgical coal index on June 6 were provided, and the position changes of the top 20 members in DCE were also mentioned [12][13][14]. Thermal Coal - Market Trend: Demand is yet to be released, and it is expected to be wide - range oscillating [2][16]. - Fundamental Data: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day, with the previous opening price of 931.6000 yuan/ton, the highest price of 931.6000 yuan/ton, and the lowest price of 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic production area quotes were provided, and the position changes of the top 20 members in ZCE were mentioned [17][18]. Logs - Market Trend: Expected to be oscillating repeatedly [2][20]. - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts on the log futures market changed, and the prices of different types of log spot markets were basically stable, with only a few showing slight declines [21][22]. - Macro and Industry News: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [24].